Posted by - J. Rand Baggesen, M.D.

This months High-Tech Health column will focus on the impact on the healthcare system due to the baby boom generation. Born between 1946 and 1964, the baby boom generation represents 78 million people. Our society or healthcare system has never seen as large a population spike enter an age when healthcare utilization naturally increases. Our nation’s birth rate has been on the decline since this postwar time and our life expectancy has been steadily rising. These two factors are combining to form the “perfect storm” for our healthcare system.

Here are a few statistics that may help put the situation in perspective. In 2006 there were 45 million people insured by Medicare. These 45 million people are supported by approximately 85 million people currently paying Medicare payroll taxes. In 9 short years from today, there will be approximately 85 million people insured by Medicare supported by approximately 80 million people paying Medicare payroll taxes. If there is no change to Medicare tax rates, that means there will be $.50 on today’s dollar for Medicare spending in 2016. But that’s not the whole story. Medicare spending has been rising by at least around 7% over the last 10 years. If you discount $.50 by 7% over the next 10 years, you are left with less than $.25 on the dollar of healthcare buying power when we will need it most.

I know this is going to sound like in economics lecture, but please read on and I will try to explain why all of this has an impact on your health.

When Medicare was started in 1966 there were 18.6 taxpayers per Medicare beneficiary. In 2030 there will be 1.4 taxpayers per Medicare beneficiary. In 2004 Medicare/Medicaid represented 4.4% of our nation’s gross domestic product. In 2050 this will grow too greater than 22% of our nation’s GDP. Medicare/Medicaid currently represents approximately 50% of our nation’s non-discretionary federal spending. Federal non-discretionary spending is Medicare/Medicaid, Social Security and interest on our nation’s debt. Sorry for so many numbers.

Our preventative healthcare system is ranked 37th in the world rate between Costa Rica and Guatemala. We spent a total of 16% of our nation’s GDP on healthcare currently. This compares to approximately 10.9% for Switzerland, the number one ranked preventative healthcare system in the world. Our healthcare spending is projected to rise to 20% of GDP by 2016.

Our aging population is entering the healthcare system where costs are rising at almost double the rate of our incomes. America’s healthcare system is organized specifically for treatment as opposed to prevention. The generational shifts outlined above have never been experienced by mankind. Our planets history has never experienced a time when there are as many old people as young people. In fact, of the people in the entire world’s history who have reached 65 years old, one half are alive today!

So, as you read this and inevitably ask; how will this impact me? Let’s put this all in perspective. As a practicing physician with “boots on the ground”, I hear more dissatisfaction with the current healthcare system from patients and doctors alike. The average waiting time to see a physician is almost an hour. The time that physicians have to spend with patients is shorter everyday. Our managed-care system seeks to control our healthcare systems often double-digit cost increases by decreasing reimbursement to hospitals on physicians. Thus, physicians are often forced to see more and more patients just to stay even with their own rising costs.

As America’s personal wellness and lifestyle habits expose us to higher rates of obesity, diabetes, heart disease and arthritis, the time is now to realize if you don’t take care of yourself it will harder to find someone in the future who can. Our nation’s healthcare system is facing the largest challenges it has ever seen. As the baby boom generation experiences a greater need for healthcare services the number of taxpayers needed to support this demand is in decline.

Medical technology has great promise. I have described a rather bleak picture so far. Knowing that the treatment of disease will become more expensive and difficult to obtain just from the shear numbers of our aging population, it is time to think of healthcare as well care, as opposed to sick care. It is time to take personal responsibility of your well care. In a society were a $4-5 cup of coffee is almost the norm, an investment in state-of-the-art well care is something whose time has come.

Today’s technology allows us to look inside blood vessels and see earliest sign of vascular disease. New blood tests and genetic markers allow us to detect your risks of cancer at the earliest stages of disease when new treatments might lead to cure. Just like saving for your retirement, planning for your wellness may be a new concept but in light of our discussion above, one who’s time has come.

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